By P Gosselin on 8. July 2018
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)
A paper authored by Khan et al. 2017 looked at the Caribbean over the past 10,000 years.
After the end of the last ice age some 11,000 years ago, sea level rose around Surinam and Guyana at a rate of 11 mm per year. That’s about 5 times faster than today.
During the middle and late Holocene, i.e. over the past 5000 years, sea level rise was only 2.4 mm per year. By the way: 5300 years ago sea level at both countries was about 1 meter higher than today’s level. Surprised? Abstract:
Drivers of Holocene sea-level change in the Caribbean
We present a Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) database for the Caribbean region (5°N to 25°N and 55°W to 90°W) that consists of 499 sea-level index points and 238 limiting dates. The database was compiled from multiple sea-level indicators (mangrove peat, microbial mats, beach rock and acroporid and massive corals). We subdivided the database into 20 regions to investigate the influence of tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment on RSL. We account for the local-scale processes of sediment compaction and tidal range change using the stratigraphic position (overburden thickness) of index points and paleotidal modeling, respectively. We use a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to estimate RSL position and its rates of change in the Caribbean over 1-ka time slices. Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka. Following complete deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) by ∼7 ka, mid-to late-Holocene rates slowed to < 2.4 ± 0.4 m/ka. The hierarchical model constrains the spatial extent of the mid-Holocene highstand. RSL did not exceed the present height during the Holocene, except on the northern coast of South America, where in Suriname and Guyana, RSL attained a height higher than present by 6.6 ka (82% probability).The highstand reached a maximum elevation of +1.0 ± 1.1 m between 5.3 and 5.2 ka. Regions with a highstand were located furthest away from the former LIS, where the effects from ocean syphoning and hydro-isostasy outweigh the influence of subsidence from forebulge collapse.”
By P Gosselin on 7. July 2018
German climate and weather analyst “Schneefan” (Snow Fan) here writes a summary of the first half of 2018 thus far. All data show that the surface temperature of the globe has been cooling strongly over the past months and polar ice mass growing.
He writes that in the first half of this year we have seen weak solar activity and La Nina conditions acting to cool the globe’s surface. Moreover Arctic and Antarctic ice mass have grown in comparison to the previous years.
Surface temperatures cool
The 2-meter surface temperatures have reached there lowest levels so far this year:
Source: Karsten Haustein, NCEO GFS.
Further, July mean surface temperatures are expected to ease further. GISS adjusted data show greater warming.
Huge sea ice surprise
Arctic sea ice area remains within the normal range at the start of July 2018, and according to the University of Bremen and the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), it is even higher than the previous years:
Though sea ice area being within the normal range may not sound impressive at all, it is yet remarkable in light of the fact that just ten years ago some scientists warned that there would not be any Arctic sea ice left come late summer!
“Especially amazing” Arctic ice volume
Schneefan reports that what’s “especially amazing” is the “powerful growth” in Arctic sea ice volume, which has surged well above the mean of the previous years, according to the data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI):
As of July 5, 2017, Arctic sea volume (black curve) is at the highest level in 5 years: 15,000 cubic kilometers. Source: DMI.
Japanese climate skeptic Kirye at Twitter confirmed the growing Arctic ice volume, as she has produced and posted a wonderful GIF graphic animation showing the course of Arctic sea ice volume for the past weeks compared to the past 16 years:
Currently sea ice volume is at the 4th highest. Source: Kirye.
Super-cooled Antarctic: ice grows significantly
Antarctic sea ice area has also grown significantly since last year and has rebounded to a normal level. As of July 5, sea ice extent was just under 12 million sq. km.
Source: AWI, University of Bremen
Currently tremendously cold conditions are gripping the vast majority of the Antarctic continent. The 7-day forecast issued on July 5 by NCEP CFS shows much colder than normal conditions taking hold over the vast majority of Antarctica.
Source: NCEP CFS, Karsten Haustein
Greenland ice mass balance surges
Recently NASA expert Jay Zwally confirmed that Antarctic ice mass was on the increase.
Schneefan also reports that Greenland ice mass balance grew for the first time in the current century, and was just recently (July 1st) some 75 billion tonnes above the WMO 1981-2010 climate mean.
Also the mid troposphere at about 7500 meters altitude (400 hPa) shows a very cool temperature level compared to the other years since 2002:
By P Gosselin on 6. July 2018
Co-written by Kirye
Two days ago, on July 4th, Chubu University scientist Professor Kunihiko Takeda told a national audience on popular Japanese TV program ‘HONMADEKKA! TV’ that cold will be reported on rather than global warming in the second half of 2018.
Japanese scientist Dr. Takeda Kunihiko
Dr. Takeda said we will be reading in the newspapers about global cooling and not global warming in the second half of this year’. ‘HONMADEKKA!? TV’ is broadcast nationwide ever Wednesday evening on Fuji TV. And when questioned about an mini ice age, he affirmed it – adding crops would be adversely affected.
Screenshot illustration of Dr. Takeda’s appearance on HONMADEKKA!? TV’ with translation. Credit: Kirye.
He also said that sunspots have been decreasing, and so the amount of cloud cover will increase as cosmic rays from space increase and the magnetic field of the sun diminishes. In that case the temperature of the Earth would fall somewhat.
The story that the ice of Antarctica and Arctic is melting is a lie, he stated further.
“Global warming is a hoax”
It’s not the first time Professor Takeda appeared on national television to dismiss global warming. In January 2017, on the popular ‘HONMADEKKA!? TV’ program, Takeda told the audience that it would be exposed that global warming was “a hoax” and that the earth is not warming as claimed. Read our post here.
In the January, 2017, show he reminded the audience that the earth in fact currently finds itself in an ice age and that “Antarctic ice is increasing”.
Takeda also said “CO2 in the early times of the Earth was 95%; now it’s 0.04%”.
Dr. Takeda was also once featured as a prominent skeptic by CFACT:
And Dr. Takeda once commented that global warming was “a political vehicle that keeps Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot.”
Other fascinating quotes by Dr. Takeda here.
By Kenneth Richard on 5. July 2018
Below is a list of 18 peer-reviewed scientific papers indicating that there has been no detectable increase — and in many cases there has been a decrease — in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, storms) in recent decades.
Scientists have found that more frequent instances of unstable and intense weather occurred during cool periods such as the Little Ice Age (approximately 1300 to 1900 A.D). Warmer periods such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately 900 to 1200 A.D.) and the 20th/21st centuries were associated with a reduction of extreme weather events.
Entitled ‘”Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate”, Laliberté and co-authors use a heat engine model to detect how warming affects work intensity, or the capacity for the hydrological cycle to produce “very intense storms”. They found that warming constrained the hydrological cycle’s ability to generate “global atmospheric motion”, which effectively means that warming has a stabilizing and calming effect with regard to generating energy for storms and precipitation extremes (droughts and floods).
“Global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but it might also make the atmosphere less energetic. Laliberté et al. modeled the atmosphere as a classical heat engine in order to evaluate how much energy it contains and how much work it can do (see the Perspective by Pauluis). They then used a global climate model to project how that might change as climate warms. Although the hydrological cycle may increase in intensity, it does so at the expense of its ability to do work, such as powering large-scale atmospheric circulation or fueling more very intense storms.”
“Incoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. … On a warming Earth, the increase in perceptible water has been identified as a reason for the tropical overturning to slow down, and studies over a wide range of climates suggest that global atmospheric motions are reduced in extremely warm climates.”
In sum, there is little to no support for the position that anthropogenic global warming results in more extreme weather events. The validity of the “dry gets dryer, wet gets wetter” paradigm has not been affirmed (Greve and Seneviratne, 2015, Byrne and O’Gordon, 2015).
1. Highest Extreme Drought, Flood Events Occurred In 1790s
“For the extreme drought and flood events in total, more frequent of them occurred in the 1770s and 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1920s and 1960s, among which the 1790s witnessed the highest frequency of extreme drought and flood events totally.”
2. Flood Events ‘Are Not Getting Stronger Or Occurring More Frequently’
“Flood events on the U.S. East Coast are not more severe or frequent than in the past. However, because of sea-level rise, these events are starting from a higher baseline height. Thus, the same severity of a flood event today reaches a greater absolute height than an identical flood would have reached 50 or 100 years ago. Based on current data, the good news is that the apparent worsening of flood events is due to a single, primary cause: sea level rise. Flood events are not getting stronger or occurring more frequently than in the past. They are instead starting from a higher point, allowing them to reach higher levels more often. The bad news is that sea-level rise will be a fact of life for many years into the future. Communities need to start now to make informed plans and decisions about how best to adapt.”
3. 7 Flood Events/Century During 1550-1948, 2 Flood Events/Century During 1949-2000
“This study presents a chronology of historical and measured flood events in the Papaloapan River basin of Mexico during 450 years. Twenty-eight historical floods were recorded during the period 1550–1948 [7 per century] on this river and one flood event (1969) in the instrumental era (1949–2000) [2 per century], of which 14 were extraordinary floods and only 15 were catastrophic ones. There were several flood-rich decades during 1860–1870, 1880–1890, 1920–1930 and 1940–1950. Wavelet analysis found a significant flooding periodicity of 58 years. The wavelet coherence analysis found that flooding had an in-phase relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and also with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Logistic regression corroborated that there exists a positive relationship between floods events and these two natural climatic oscillations. The logistic regression model predicted correctly 92% of flood events.”
4. Less Storm And Hail Frequency May Occur With Warming
“The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world’s most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region. … Based on 53‐year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.”
5. Changes In Flood Frequency And Magnitude Due To Enhanced Greenhouse Forcing “Not Generally Evident”
“The main objective of this paper is to detect the evidence of statistically significant flood trends across Europe using a high spatial resolution dataset. … Anticipated changes in flood frequency and magnitude due to enhanced greenhouse forcing are not generally evident at this time over large portions of the United States for several different measures of flood flows. … Thus, similarly to the main findings of Archfield et al. (2016) for the US, the picture of flood change in Europe is strongly heterogeneous and no general statements about uniform trends across the entire continent can be made.”
6. IPCC: “Globally There Is No Clear And Widespread Evidence Of Changes In Flood Magnitude Or Frequency”
“In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe … Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends. … The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded (Hartmann et al., 2013) that globally there is no clear and widespread evidence of changes in flood magnitude or frequency in observed flood records. … North American trends in … frequency of extremes in the 1980s and 1990s were similar to those of the late 1800s and early 1900s. There was no discernible trend in the frequency of extreme events in Canada. The results of this study, for North America and Europe, provide a firmer foundation and support the conclusion of the IPCC (Hartmann et al., 2013) that compelling evidence for increased flooding at a global scale is lacking.”
7. “No Significant Trends” In Flood Frequency Or Heights
“[A] 122-year record of major flooding depths at the Rarawai Sugar Mill on the Ba River in the northwest of the Fijian Island of Viti Levu is analysed. … It exhibits no statistically significant trends in either frequency or flood heights, once the latter have been adjusted for average relative sea-level rise. This is despite persistent warming of air temperatures as characterized in other studies. There is a strong dependence of frequency (but not magnitude) upon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, with many more floods in La Niña phases. The analysis of this long-term data series illustrates the difficulty of detecting a global climate change signal from hazard data, even given a consistent measurement methodology (cf HURDAT2 record of North Atlantic hurricanes) and warns of the strong dependence of any statistical significance upon choices of start and end dates of the analysis.”
8. Drought Frequency Appears To Have Decreased During 1901-2014
“In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. … Results indicated that … the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.”
9. “A Significant Decreasing Trend In Severe Weather” During 1961-2010
“Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.”
10. “The Most Frequent Climate Instability” Associated With Global Cooling
“Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.”
11. Frequency Of “All Mexico” Droughts Have Not Increased In Recent Decades
“The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. … [A]nalyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense “All Mexico” droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.”
12. “The Net Effect Of Climate Change Has Made Agricultural Drought Less Likely”
“The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-term climate change on CA drought. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late 19th Century induces both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10-cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1-m) as co-variate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for near-surface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely, and that the current severe impacts of drought on California’s agriculture has not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes.”
13. Flood Frequency Higher With Lower Solar Activity/Cooling
“Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16–23 (r = −0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73) [1920s-2000s]. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced.[when cooling occurs]. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean–atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.”
14. “The Frequency Of Extreme Floods Has Decreased Since The 1950s”
“A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades.”
15. Droughts More “Severe, Extensive, And Prolonged” Before The 20th Century
“Megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidencefrom North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes.”
16. Sea Surface Temperature (Warming) “Does Not Significantly Affect Drought Intensity Or Frequency”
“SST forcing does not significantly affect drought intensity or frequency of occurrence, even for very persistent ‘megadroughts‘ of 15 yr or more in length. In both the CESM1.0.3 and NADA, with the exception of the Southeast United States, droughts in all regions have intensities, persistence lengths, and occurrence frequencies statistically consistent with a red noise null hypothesis. This implies that SST forcing is not the dominant factor in generating drought and therefore that many decadal megadroughts are caused by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and coupling with the land surface, with SST anomalies playing only a secondary role.”
17. For The Past Century, Drought Percentage “Has Not Changed” Despite Warming
“[F]or the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET [potential evapotranspiration] and temperature (T) have increased.
18. High Storm Activity During Cold Periods, Low Storm Activity During Warm Years
“A comparison with North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean paleoclimate proxies shows that the phases of high storm activity occurred during cold periods, suggesting a climatically-controlled mechanism for the occurrence of these storm periods. Besides, an in-phase storm activity pattern is found between the Western Mediterranean and Northern Europe. Spectral analyses performed on the Sr content revealed a new 270-year solar-driven pattern of storm cyclicity. For the last 3000 years, this 270-year cycle defines a succession of ten major storm periods (SP) with a mean duration of 96 ± 54 yr. Periods of higher storm activity are recorded from >680 to 560 cal yr BC (SP10, end of the Iron Age Cold Period), from 140 to 820 cal yr AD (SP7 to SP5) with a climax of storminess between 400 and 800 cal yr AD (Dark Ages Cold Period), and from 1230 to >1800 cal yr AD (SP3 to SP1, Little Ice Age). Periods of low storm activity occurred from 560 cal yr BC to 140 cal yr AD (SP9 and SP8, Roman Warm Period) and from 820 to 1230 cal yr AD (SP4, Medieval Warm Period).”
By P Gosselin on 4. July 2018
Very recent scientific publications show that the North Atlantic heat content and surface temperatures have been cooling significantly, and so may lead to a rebound in Arctic sea ice in the region. Already Arctic sea ice has stabilized over the past 10 years and Greenland has shown a surprising ice mass gain.
Kenneth wrote about this here not long ago.
Climate scientists agree that variations in the North Atlantic temperatures and ocean currents have a great impact on sea ice in the North Atlantic Arctic region and Europe’s climate.
Dramatic fall in North Atlantic heat content
For example recent findings published in Nature by a team led by David J. R. Thornalley of Department of Geography, University College London, show that the heat content of the North Atlantic from zero to 700 meters depth has cooled the most dramatically since the 1950s:
North Atlantic ocean heat content (OHC) dives. Source: Thormalloy et al, Nature.
In the 1970s most scientists believed an ice age was approaching after the surface temperature of the North Atlantic had cooled sharply from its 1950s peak.
Another very recent publication appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters by a team of researchers led by D.A. Smeed of National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK shows that surface and subsurface temperatures of the North Atlantic have fallen to their lowest levels in in more than 30 years:
The researchers suspect that the decreased lower temperatures are related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is a powerful system of currents in the Atlantic involving the northward flow of warm water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of colder, deep waters which are part of the thermohaline circulation.
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have significant impacts on North Atlantic climate. Source: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/Science/USGCRP
The scientists theorize that melting Arctic sea ice may be responsible for the recent changes, but this remains highly speculative as the data to support this is extremely sparse. Meanwhile other scientists believe it has all more to do with multidecadal scale ocean cycles that have occurred throughout history.
Warming changes over to cooling
Another team of scientists led by Christopher G. Piecuch published a study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters here which shows that the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) upper ocean and sea‐surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015.
The authors write that the region “is subject to strong decadal variability”, meaning natural cycles are at play. The authors present the following chart, which shows that the North Atlantic heat content has fallen sharply since 2010.
So is it any surprise that Arctic sea ice has stabilized in the wake of the North Atlantic cooling and that Greenland is putting on gigatons of added ice?
Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics has said repeatedly that when ocean heat content in the regions adjacent to the Arctic falls, it’s only natural for sea ice to recover, and vice versa when ocean heat content rises. Arctic ice extent fluctuates along with the natural Atlantic and Pacific ocean cycles. It has little to do with trace gas CO2.
By P Gosselin on 3. July 2018
Researchers have published 4 new papers this year showing that both tropical cyclone activity and intensity have declined over the past decades. The findings mean atmospheric scientists and policymakers will need to reassess positions on climate change and tropical storms.
Photo: NASA (public domain)
Last year’s 2017 hurricane season was an active one and caused a great deal of damage along the US southeast coastline. Global warming alarmists moved quickly to blame it on man-made CO2, which they say causes the planet to warm up and thus makes tropical cyclones more frequent and ferocious.
Yet an objective analysis of the recorded data show this is not the case at all, and that the opposite is occurring.
Hurricane “landfall drought”
For example, new scientific results of an analysis authored by Ryan Truchelut and Erica Staeling in the journal Geophysical Research Letters tell us that the 11 years before 2017 were in reality “an extended period” of quiet continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that today is known as the “landfall drought”. During this period (from 2006 through 2016) no major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes made landfall – an unprecedented event since systematic observations began.
Activity over 40% below average
Moreover, the two authors used accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) data to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. Their findings: The hurricane landfall drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900–2017 average.
The data also revealed a “statistically significant downward” trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period.
US landfalling hurricanes downward trend since 1900
Another just released scientific study by Klotzbach et al., 2018 tells us that since 1900 neither continental United States landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity show significant trends (including the devastating 2017 season).
Charts above show that continental US hurricane activity has been decreasing since 1900 (despite atmospheric CO2 and global temperature rising). Source: Klotzbach et al, 2018.
Alarmists contradicted: Warming leads to LESS storms!
A third scientific publication authored by Zhang et al., 2018, also appearing in the journal Geophysical Research letters found that the mean frequency of Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones was about 18% lower over the 1997–2014 period compared to the previous 1980–1996 period.
The reason, the authors found, was in part connected to “enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic”!
“No significant correlation” between cyclones and temperature
Finally a fourth scientific publication by Zhao et al., 2018 looked at the relationship between increasing tropical cyclone activity and increasing sea surface temperatures. Three previous studies by Liu and Chan 2013, Lin and Chan 2015, and Zhao and Wang 2016 showed that there had been a significant decrease of tropical cyclone frequency over the Western North Pacific basin since 1998.
Western North Pacific cyclone frequency declining!
According to Zhao, citing Chan 2006 and Yeh et al. 2010, observational analyses pointed out that there is no significant correlation between tropical cyclone frequency and sea surface temperatures over the Western North Pacific basin.
Moreover, the chart above makes it clear that tropical cyclone frequency in the Western North Pacific basin has in fact been declining.
By Kenneth Richard on 2. July 2018
Three years ago, an unheralded paper was published in The International Journal of Geosciences entitled “Climate Change Science & Propaganda” (Nelson, 2015). The author, a retired chemical engineer, openly and brazenly characterized the United Nation’s Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as an “undisputed” distributor of propaganda.
In a new paper (detailed below), Dr. Erik L. Olson — a professor of marketing at BI Norwegian Business School (BINBS) — further derides the current marketing of an imminent human-caused climate threat.
Olson targets the tendency for the purveyors of dangerous AGW to utilize deceptive and unethical tactics in an effort to garner the public‘s attention and to “sell” governmental policies that promote costly emissions mitigation.
He analyzes the public’s response to the “Fakegate” scandal — an instance in which an activist climate researcher named Peter Gleick admittedly stole documents and deceptively posed as a Heartland Institute member in a failed attempt to undermine climate change skepticism.
The results of the analysis reveal that AGW advocates (or, as Olson calls them, “believers”) tend to justify the unethical conduct of those on their side as long as the transgression is deemed to have been for a “good cause”.
Noting that the AGW paradigm is “difficult-to-sell”, Olson warns that the utilization of deceptive headlines, the unethical practice of manipulating temperature data to “hide the decline”, stealing documents and faking authorship . . . are not effective selling points when it comes to persuading an already skeptical public.
Instead, as a marketing tool, the utilization of deceptive and unethical tactics are destined to fail.
By P Gosselin on 1. July 2018
Germany is a country that madly rushed in all earnest into green energies without any planning and thought some 10 years ago. Electric cars of course were envisioned as being a key part of the green energy transition, dubbed the Energiewende.
Fortunately, since then, some are beginning to wake up to the harsh reality of “green” energy.
10 years later, despite the now 56 gigawatts of installed wind capacity and 40 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, the country still relies on fossil fuels for more than half of its energy supply. That fact and all the batteries needed make e-cars a fake green dream.
This all means that over the long term electric cars in Germany are still more CO2 intensive than regular gasoline powered cars, according to a recent report titled “Eco-Swindle E-Auto” on DW German public television:
Ja so wird der Konsument für blöd verkauft.
Gepostet von Robert Scherleitner am Dienstag, 10. Oktober 2017
According to moderator Thomas Spahn, e-cars in Germany are not living up at all to the promises of being environmentally friendly. Quite to the contrary. “It’s a pity that this climate friendly vision still fails the test of reality,” he says.
Worse than diesel automobiles
According to Spahn of DW, the Stockholm Environmental Research Institute (IVL) calculated that just the production of the batteries for a Tesla S car spews some 17 tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere and that this is just as bad for the environment as a diesel or gasoline engine after being on the road 200,000 kilometers!
What’s worse, according to Spahn, is that in Germany the CO2 performance of e-cars is even worse because more than half the power that is needed to charge the e-vehicles is generated from coal or gas fuel, and thus he calls e-cars “rolling climate killers”.
“Illusion” and “self-delusion”
According to Spahn, e-cars won’t be clean until all electric power in Germany gets produced exclusively by green energies.
But that will take decades. Until then, climate-friendly e-cars unfortunately will remain an illusion. But let’s be honest, self-delusion is indeed the nicest when you can share it with many others.”
German online daily SHZ here wrote:
Raw material processing and the production of batteries in plants account for about 80% of the total environmental burden.”
By P Gosselin on 30. June 2018
The following Arctic sea ice area chart from the Bremerhaven-based Alfred-Wegener Institute shows a current sea ice area that is about 1 million square kilometers below the mean.
But don’t let the lower than normal sea ice area fool you into thinking the ice is disappearing, and that the alarmist climate scientists are right. They aren’t.
In turns out that the ice is far thicker than it’s been over the past years, and so total ice volume, which is what really counts, is rebounding impressively, according the most recent data.
Arctic ice volume 3rd highest in 16 years
The chart from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) shows that the Arctic ice volume on June 29 was dead normal:
Moreover, Arctic sea ice thickness is well above what was observed 10 years earlier, in 2008.
June ice volume reaches highest level in 13 years
Charting the Arctic ice volume for June 26, we see that it has reached its highest level in 13 years:
Chart taken from Real Climate Science, Tony Heller.
Clearly Arctic sea ice has stabilized over the past 10 years and it is nowhere near disappearing, as a number of hysterical scientists were predicting just 10 or 12 years ago.
So now expect global warming alarmists to ignore the Arctic and to focus on weather anecdotes to keep their climate catastrophe scam going.
Greenland ice mass balance skyrockets
Also Greenland ice mass balance remains far above normal, some 75 billion metric tonnes above the mean.
Chart source: DMI, via Kirye at Twitter.
No climate canary in a coalmine detectable here.
This year is also seeing the James Bay and Hudson Bay still almost completely covered with ice on June 30, as the following CDAS chart shows:
Global sea surface temperatures. Source: Tropical Tidbits.
North Atlantic sea surface temps well below normal
So what could be behind the slow ice melt in northeastern Canada, growing Arctic ice volume, and Greenland ice mass?
One major factor is likely the much colder than normal north Atlantic sea surface temperature that’s keeping the region refrigerated.
The following chart shows the anomaly from the mean:
Source: Tropical Tidbits.
The North Atlantic is well below normal temperature.
Cold tropical Atlantic to suppress hurricanes?
Also the tropical Atlantic, from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean, is colder than normal. According to hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach at Twitter, the temperature pattern over the Atlantic is opposite of what was observed during the summer of hurricane intense 2017.
Klotzbach suspects the current cold across the tropical Atlantic could act to suppress hurricane formation. That would be good news.
By P Gosselin on 29. June 2018
A video released by software expert Tony Heller exposes 30 years of completely false predictions made by NASA “climate experts” and how the predictions have no more value than those from a swindling crystal ball fortune-teller of a traveling side show.
When it comes to the climate debate, one could say he “floats like a butterfly, stings like a bee.”
Few skeptics are as hated and vilified by climate alarmists and global warming fraudsters as Tony Heller of Real Climate Science.
One reason for the hatred is Tony’s voluminous stream of inconvenient climate facts and climate science fraud he exposes day after day at his Real Climate Science blog.
Exposing false predictions and inconvenient climate history
Again and again Heller, a software and programming expert, effectively and convincingly points out that none of the scary predictions made by climate alarmists and media have come true, and that today’s often claimed unprecedented weather extremes have in fact happened many times and long before – even 100 years ago or more when CO2 was low.
As you are about to see, very often the OPPOSITE of what global warming alarmist “scientists” predicted years ago has in fact occurred.
The degree to which the alarmist predictions have been wrong is nothing short of stunning.
Video viewed tens of thousands of times in just days
The latest is a 14-minute video that looks back at the past 30 years of totally failed climate predictions, many made by NASA scientist James Hansen when he testified before Congress in 1988 to warn the world of a coming climate disaster.
The video is a must-see if you haven’t viewed it already, and is certainly one that ought to be sent to your political representatives, or friends and relatives.
So far the video has viewed more than 33,000 views, and shows no signs of slowing down.
Hansen warned in 1988 of huge droughts and heat waves plaguing the US soon in the future, but in the video Heller shows how temperatures and drought conditions were in reality far worse back in the 1930s and in 1988 than they are today.
Hansen “dead wrong” about his drought forecast
For example in 1988, NASA’s Hansen warned that his climate models (primitive compared to today’s models which still don’t work at all) showed the US Midwest would get drier and droughts more and more severe as time went on.
Yet, Heller presents a chart in the video that tells us the exact opposite has in fact happened since!
Source: Cropped here.
As Heller’s chart above shows, in the late 1980s it was very dry, but then almost immediately after Hansen’s testimony warning of more drought, it got wet again. Moreover the last 5 years have been particularly moist. The exact opposite of what Hansen predicted is in fact occurring today.
Hot days have FALLEN
Hansen also warned that the number of hot days above 90°F (32°C) would increase dramatically to 85 days a year in Omaha. Nebraska and Washington D.C.
But in the chart Heller presents at the 7:30 mark of the video, we see that the opposite has happened (arrows in all charts added by author):
Source: Cropped here.
The number of days above 32°C for Ashland, Nebraska (near Omaha) have fallen over the past 20 years, and not risen as NASA’s James Hansen had forecast in 1988.
Hansen also “completely messed up” his forecast of 38°C+ days for Beltsville, Maryland near Washington D.C. (7:52), Heller shows:
The number of very hot days (38°C or higher) for the Washington D.C. area each year has declined instead of rapidly rising as NASA’s GISS Head James Hansen projected in 1988. Source: Cropped here.
“Arctic ice has gotten much thicker over the past decade”
Hansen’s predictions concerning the Arctic have turned out to be equally awful. Though the Arctic saw ice loss until about 2010, it has since rebounded robustly, which means that it has nothing to do with CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and more to do with natural cycles.
Totally messed up forecast
The chart he presents at the 9:00 minute mark shows a comparison between 2008 and today. Heller notes: “Instead of getting much thinner, the ice has gotten much thicker over the past decade. [….] Arctic sea ice volume is the thickest since 2005. […] Hansen totally messed up that forecast.”
Lake levels higher instead of lower
Next the experienced software expert looks at the levels of major lakes, which James Hansen said would drop to possibly dramatic levels. The reality today, however, is that they are higher!
The Great Lakes did not dry up and see their levels sink. They increased instead. Source: Cropped here.
The Great Lakes in the US are not drying out as Hansen predicted.
Sea level forecast totally botched
Next NASA’s Hansen warned in 1988 that melting polar and glacial ice would lead to rapidly rising sea levels and so New York City would be partially under water by now (2018). Al Gore also made a similar prediction in his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.
But as Heller points out, “Hansen completely messed up that forecast.” Nothing could be further from the truth, as the following chart vividly illustrates:
Tide gauges for Lower Manhattan show sea level has barely risen since NASA’s Dr. James Hansen warned in 1988 the area would be under water by now. Source: Cropped here.
NASA forecasts no better than fortune telling by swindling gypsies
In a nutshell, these NASA forecasts have turned out to be no better than the junk fortunes peddled by swindling gypsies of a traveling sideshow. Any meteorologist with that kind of dismal forecasting track-record would have long found himself employed as a taxi driver.
It’s time for NASA’s incompetent and fraudulent scientists to start looking for new careers and to stop wasting money and resources.
Taxpayer’s deserve far better for their hard-earned tax dollars. We’re sick and tired of being defrauded and it’s time for President Trump to clean house.
By Kenneth Richard on 28. June 2018
These 254 new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.
More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.
N(1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations, precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.
N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.
N(3) The computer climate models are neither reliable or consistently accurate, and projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.
N(4) Current emissions-mitigation policies, especially related to the advocacy for renewables, are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment, whereas elevated CO2 and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere (i.e., a greener planet and enhanced crop yields).
In sharp contrast to the above, the corresponding “consensus” positions that these papers do not support are:
A(1) Close to or over 100% (110%) of the warming since 1950 has been caused by increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, leaving natural attribution at something close to 0%.
A(2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities…are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)…and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.
A(3) The climate models are reliable and accurate, and the scientific understanding of the effects of both natural forcing factors (solar activity, clouds, water vapor, etc.) and CO2 concentration changes on climate is “settled enough“, which means that “the time for debate has ended“.
A(4) The proposed solutions to mitigate the dangerous consequences described in N(4) – namely, wind and solar expansion – are safe, effective, and environmentally-friendly.
To reiterate, the 254 papers compiled in 2018 thus far support the N(1)-N(4) positions, and they undermine or at least do not support the “consensus” A(1)-A(4) positions. The papers do not do more than that. Expectations that these papers should do more than support skeptical positions and undermine “consensus” positions to “count” are deemed unreasonable in this context.
Below are the three links to the list of 2018 papers amassed as of the 28th of June, 2018, as well as the guideline for the lists’ categorization.Skeptic Papers 2018 (1) Skeptic Papers 2018 (2) Skeptic Papers 2018 (3)
By P Gosselin on 27. June 2018
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)
Today’s topic: Sea level rise around Africa. There the sea level is rising there like anywhere else. Already during the last warm phase, the Medieval Warm Period (WMP), sea level rose.
That makes sense because during the warm phases ice melts at the poles and high mountains glaciers. But what was the case during the Little Ice Age as the glaciers expanded? There aren’t any tide guage measurements from this time, but geological reconstructions have been carried out. And lo and behold, the south coast of Africa saw sea level drop during the Little Ice Age. See Scott & Lee-Thorpe 2004:
There is good evidence for a number of environmental shifts during the last 2000 years, but the most noteworthy event may be the climatic fluctuation during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Evidence for a lower sea level on the southern coast during its earlier phase (1520 or 1570 AD) may be a reflection of widespread anomalous conditions during this phase (Marker 1997).”
Also on the west coast of South Africa we find a small surprise. Five thousand years ago sea levels were 3 meters higher than they are today. This is nicely documented by Carr et al. 2015 in their Figure 7:
Sea level of the west coast of South Africa during the past 9000 years (BP=years before present). The solid curve applies here (not the dashed line). Source: Carr et al. 2015.
Next let’s move northeast to Mozambique. There scientists Achimo and colleagues, find that Maputo Bay already reached today’s levels 5000-7000 years ago:
The complete picture of Maputo Bay patterns with its modern sedimentary environments including Inhaca Island may have evolved when the sea level has stood close to its present level around 7000 – 5000 years BP, after which the Maputo Bay became more or less stable.”
A sea level drop between 800-1300 A.D. at Mozambique was documented in Sitoe et al. 2017 (see their Fig. 5).
Sea level rose again gradually after the year 1300 A,D, but hasn’t reached by any measure the level seen in 800 A.D.
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By P Gosselin on 26. June 2018
Chronic climate anxiety. A Potsdam research associate writes how she copes with the psychological despair and distress she suffers because of her perceived approaching climate catastrophe.
Distressed Potsdam IASS research associate Irene Müller. Image cropped from: IASS.
Over at the blog site of the Potsdam Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), research associate Irene Müller writes in an essay titled “How climate scientists feel”:
A catastrophe is rolling our way. A catastrophe that mankind could prevent, and we aren’t succeeding in changing our selfish lifestyles which are partly responsible for this catastrophe.”
Potsdam: hotbed of hotheads
Readers first should note that over the past decades, Potsdam-Germany has become a hot-bed for climate hot-heads, ultra-alarmist institutes and hysteria concerning the future of the planet.
The East German city is also home to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which until just recently was headed by Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber. It also is the workplace for climate alarmism hothead Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf.
All climate scientists working in Potsdam are convinced that climate change is mostly man-made and will soon be lethal. They also believe the vivid visions of a planetary collapse that their models routinely produce. In Potsdam there are neither skeptic scientists, nor lukewarmers – there are only the white-hot alarmist ones.
Their task: produce dramatic and alarmist future climate scenarios.
Aim: German energy purity
And to help implement the long-shot rescue from the claimed coming climate Armageddon, the German government has set up the Potsdam Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, mentioned above. It will assist in ushering Prof. Schellnhuber’s masterplan for the “Great Transformation” of society – worldwide.
The aim of The Great Transformation is to end mankind’s “fossil-fuel metabolism” and to transition it to one of energy purity.
Convinced planet rapidly going to hell
In her IASS blog essay, Ms. Müller writes: “We’ve known for many years that man-made emissions cause climate change. Moreover the number of jet flights is increasing steadily.” Even worse: “In addition to air traffic, also the consumption of goods, automobile traffic and emissions” are rising as well.
All the capitalistic profligacy, she says, means “there will be more storms, and they will be more violent, and that they are coming sooner.” As evidence of this she cites a single tornado that was spotted last May in Germany. Sadly, this is the education level one needs in order to attain a masters degree in Germany.
Ms. Müller earned her masters degree in Sustainability, Society and the Environment from CAU Kiel, Germany, and holds a bachelor in Social Sciences from the Humboldt University Berlin.
Müller then writes there is going to be more heavy rains, flooding, destroyed homes, poor harvests, refugees, droughts, political conflicts, species extinctions, pollution, poisons, pesticides and herbicides and lost ecosystems. She’s convinced the planet is about to collapse.
Coping through meditation, deep breathing
Ms. Müller blames modern society, mainly consumerism and the unending quest for profit, for all the perceived destruction:
This development, narrow-mindedness makes me sad. And angry. Dissatisfied. Crazy! Unhappy!
How does the Potsdam researcher deal with her despair? She writes she tries to distract herself through her work, free time activities, and by practicing deep breathing.
And I’m learning meditation in order to cope with my stress and the conflicts I face. Breathe in. Breathe out. Breathe in.”
Vegetarian diet, no flying, mends her clothes
Müller comments that she expends much effort to protect the climate: “I don’t fly. I eat vegetarian, I mend my clothes, buy fair.” She also does her utmost “to live ‘correctly’, and as climate and environmentally friendly as possible, but it is sometimes pretty darn difficult.”
Later in her essay Müller admits her post is “not purely scientific” and that it describes her “reaction to the perceived scientific facts and observed realities.”
Taxes and restrictions as a solution
The Potsdam researcher proposes high taxes on jet fuel, a vast network of high-speed bicycle paths, doing away with the privilege of company cars and limiting advertising (so that people will be less inclined to buy things).
She says that privileged people living at the expense of the less privileged makes her “angry”.
Vision: Norway as “a green battery for Europe”
For her master’s thesis, according to Müller’s profile, she investigated “narratives in the Norwegian debate around ‘Norway as a green battery’ for Europe”.
Hysterical rantings “part of the problem”
Müller’s hyperventilated ranting was too much for Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski. From the standpoint of climate change and what to do about it, the Spiegel journalist commented about her rant at Twitter here: “Here such essays are part of the problem.”
In honesty, Ms. Müller is not really to blame for her distress and despair because she is merely the product of a seriously broken higher education system. Her master’s degree is in fact an anti-master. In her essay she is only regurgitating the Gospel and Dogma put out by the self-anointed Prophets of Potsdam, who run the place and forbid dissent of any kind.
She’s an unfortunate, unwitting prisoner of a cult-like complex, and it’s really sad to see young talent end up like this.
Ms. Müller and the IASS really could consider translating the German text into English, so that the whole world could get a good laugh from it, yet at the same time pause for a moment to reflect where this self-inflicted, echo-chamber-induced hysteria risks taking us. No, it won’t be a green paradise. Quite to the contrary.
By Kenneth Richard on 25. June 2018
The scientific literature is teeming with temperature reconstructions that depict a glaring lack of unprecedented, remarkable, or even detectable warming at sites all across the globe. Hundreds of non-warming/non-hockey stick graphs have been published just since 2017 alone.
And when it comes to temperature reconstructions, one geographical region has seemed to receive more attention than any other: China.
Reconstructions of regional China temperatures consistently do not support the position that the modern period falls outside the range of natural variability.
In fact, in the first half of 2018 alone, there have already been 17 scientific papers published documenting a lack of conspicuous modern warming for regional China.Directly Measuring Temperature/Climate With Blooming Dates
Unlike other temperature proxies used to reconstruct past temperatures, the day of the year a plant or tree blooms can be directly connected to the regional temperature. Cooler temperatures translate to delayed bloom dates, and warmer temperatures indicate early bloom dates. Compiled over decades to centuries, records of blooming dates can clearly depict long-term climate trends, as demonstrated in Liu and Fang (2017):
In a new study, Liu et al. (2018) obtained records of blooming dates for flowering trees in Beijing during the 260 years between 1741 and 2000. Consistent with many other recent paleoclimate reconstructions for the region, Liu et al. (2018) did not assess any significant differences between the first blooming dates in the second half of the 18th century (1741-1795) compared to the late 20th century (1963-2000).
In fact, even when including the delayed blooming dates (shown above) during the 1796-1832 period (attributed to that colder period’s higher volcanic activity and lower solar irradiance), the average first-bloom date during the 90 years between 1741-1832 were effectively identical to the first-bloom date for 1963-2000 (85.2 vs. 84.4).“No global climate warming due to the greenhouse effect since the Industrial Revolution occurs in the study area” (Li et al., 2009)
As mentioned above, an abundance of proxy reconstructions from the region also show the modern period is no warmer — and even several degrees colder — than it has been for the last several centuries to millennia.
Therefore, it appears to be widely accepted in the scientific literature that China has not been impacted by dangerous or unprecedented “global” warming since the 18th century, or since CO2 concentrations began rising precipitoously.
C. Regional China Temperatures 2 – 7°C Warmer Than Today During Past MillenniaZheng et al., 2018
By P Gosselin on 24. June 2018
Winter refuses to die as large parts of the northern hemisphere like Labrador and Eastern Europe get blanketed by unusual summer snow. Arctic ice volume reaches 13-year high, Greenland snow mass balance explodes, and tropical Atlantic is “coldest on record”.Where’s the warming!
The Arctic and North Atlantic have suddenly turned surprisingly cold. First, according to Weatherbell meteorologist Joe Bastardi, the northern Atlantic has turned cold; so cold in fact that Bastardi called it “impressive”:
Source: cropped from Weatherbell
“impressive”…coldest Atlantic on record (since 1982)
Tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) (10-20°N, 60-20°W) remain at record cold levels (since 1982) for mid-June. About 0.2°C colder than prior coldest (1985) and nearly 1.7°C cooler than last year at this time. Colder SSTs typically mean quieter Atlantic
Canada shivers, “unprecedented” this late in June
Also much of Canada has been cold and the forecast for the next 15 days shows little warming. Labrador was hit severely by a winter storm just days ago.
According to the CBC: “6 feet of snow around Labrador lodge ‘unprecedented’ this late in June. This is the latest in the season to have this much snow at Igloo Lake Lodge, says operator.”
As the following chart shows, there’s no relief from the cold there in sight:
Source: Cropped at Weatherbell.
Labrador may not get a summer, most snow in 50 years
At Friday’s Weatherbell Daily Update, Joe Bastardi said: “Boy, I’ll tell you what. Canada is just not getting a break. There it’s just really cold. And it’s still plenty cold up here in Labrador where they haven’t had a summer at all, and they may not!”
Just days ago the Weather Channel here reported that there was still six feet of snow: The headline: “Labrador, Canada, Hasn’t Seen This Much Snow in June in 50 Years.”
Summer snow falls in summer…in Poland/Ukraine!
Yesterday, on the second day of summer, snow fell in Poland! according to Severe Weather Europe at Facebook.
In Ukraine in the Karpaten 27 children had to be rescued from summer camp by emergency crews as “several centimeters of snow fell and temperatures dropped near freeing,” the German Weser Kurier here reports.
Arctic ice and snow sees impressive rebound
Looking at the Arctic, Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye tweeted here that the sea ice volume remains strong, and is even a bit above the 2004-2013 mean.
Chart source: dmi.dk.5889309
All of this is much to the detriment of the latest Ship of Fools episode, where activists have chartered Russian ship “Akademik Ioffe“ with the aim of carrying out another climate-change publicity stunt later this summer. There’s a real risk the mission might produce the opposite of what they intend. We’re all watching.
Arctic ice volume 13-year high!
Prominent climate skeptic Tony Heller also posted here the following chart showing that Arctic ice volume has rebounded over the past years and stands at a thirteen year high, the prominent climate critic and skeptic .
Source: Tony Heller, Real Climate Science.
Greenland ice mass explodes
Finally, Schneefan here, citing data from the Danish Meteorological Institute, reports that the Greenland ice mass balance has grown well above average this year.
Schneefan reports that mass balance has has exploded “to over 600 billion tonnes since September 1, 2017” and is 50 billion tonnes over the mean and 100 billion tonnes above the 2012 level at this time.
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By P Gosselin on 23. June 2018
Accurately measuring the sea level with a satellite is highly complex and fraught with uncertainty. Even the slightest equipment miscalibrations can produce inaccurate results.
Huge discrepancy exists between satellite measurements and observed coastal tide gauge readings. Source: CSIRO.
For sea level rise, the figures that are often cited come from namely two sources: satellite measurement, which go back 25 years and so do not properly account for multidecadal variations, and tide gauges placed along the coastlines where people actually live.
Satellite data may be overstating sea level rise
The assumed current global sea level rise from the satellite data TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft and its successors, which began collecting data in late 1992, is reported by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to be 2.8 inches (7 centimeters).
Some experts recently warned however — after having made adjustments to the satellite measurements — that sea level rise has accelerated and thus could rise some 75 centimetres over the century, which would be in line with projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013.
Other sources say that sea level rise could be as much as 3.4 mm per year, and thus accelerating (e.g. see chart above).
Indeed if these high-end projections were accurate, then coastal areas would be facing serious challenges. But those alarmist claims have been met critically, and at times even with derision.
There remains lots of uncertainty, and so the question today is: How much are coastal areas (where it really matters) at risk really?
Tide gauges: “most extensive, accurate and significant” datasets
One way to check what’s really going on is to examine the tide gauges along the coasts worldwide. Since the early 1800’s, NOAA and its predecessor organizations have been measuring tide levels.
According to the NOAA, “This database has become one of the most extensive, accurate and significant geophysical data sets in existence.”
To do this the NOAA keeps a coastal station tide list for tracking global linear relative sea level (RSL). Manually I counted 358 stations. A number of them stopped measurement some years ago, while others were put in operation in the 20th century. The list appears not to include the US tide gauges.
The data and charts can be looked at country-by-country here.
Less than 1% on track to meet IPCC’s 75 cm sea level rise by 2100
Examining the data to get a general idea how the sea level is behaving at these tide stations. A number of points were observed:
1) Only 3 stations show a RSL rise of 7.5 mm/year or more, meaning that only three stations (0.08%) are on track to reach the IPCC’s alarmist 75 cm sea level rise projection by 2100. And if we use the more conservative 60 cm rise, only 5 stations (1.4%) are on track!
Only 14% show a rise equal to or greater than satellite global rate
2) Only 51 tide gauges (14%) are measuring 3.2 mm/year or more, which is approximately equivalent to about what the satellites are said to be measuring globally. That figure would need to be near 50% if the satellites were true.
3) 54 coastal tide gauges (15%) show that relative sea level has in in fact been falling.
4) The mean relative sea level rise as to the tide gauges is about one third less than what is measured by the satellites, i.e. approx. 2.3 mm per year, or less than 10 inches per century.
This is only a rough overview. Naturally a more detailed look recent tide gauge trends of the last 2 or 3 decades would tell us more about accelerating sea level rise. Or maybe not: rate changes over such short time periods have more to do with natural variations.
So in general? If you’re living and working at the institutes who operate the satellites, then you might be showing concern about the figures from your getting (it’ll help with funding, in any case).
But if you’re the average person living near the coast, then in most places there’s not much to be alarmed about. There’s a good chance the satellites are overstating sea level rise just a bit and so you can better rely on what your local tide gauge has been showing.
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By P Gosselin on 22. June 2018
As much of Germany’s nearly 30,000 strong fleet of wind turbines approach 20 or more years in age, the list of catastrophic collapses is growing more rapidly. The turbines are now being viewed by technical experts as “ticking time bombs”.
Wind turbine recently burned after being hit by lightning. Image: Wasili Karbe, cropped from video here.
According to a commentary by Daniel Wetzel of online German Daily ‘Die Welt’, the aging rickety wind turbines are poorly inspected and maintained and thus are now posing a huge risk.
As the older turbines age, their components and electronic control systems are wearing out and beginning to gravely malfunction. And according to Wetzel, these turbines are not even subject to strict technical monitoring by Germany’s TÜV (Technical Inspection Association), which provides inspection and product certification services.
In Germany industrial systems are required to regularly undergo technical inspections and approvals in order to ensure that they operate safely. However wind turbines are exempt from this strict requirement and so many wind park operators are neglecting to properly inspect, maintain and repair the systems, which is costly. And so it surprises no one that the aging turbines are beginning to fail catastrophically.
As a result, the TÜV is calling for turbines to be treated like any other industrial system, and be required to undergo rigorous inspections as well, Wetzel writes.
In 2016, near in the region of Paderborn, a 100-tonne turbine and its rotors plunged to the earth. The turbine was nearly 20 years old.
“Razor-sharp shards” threat to grazing animals
In another case, earlier this year, near Bochern, Wetzel reports, a brakeless 115-meter tall turbine spun wildly out of control before “two of the 56-meter blades “ripped to shreds ‘in a cloud of glass, plastic and fill material’.”
“Razor-sharp fiberglass shards flew 800 meters,” the Westfalen Blatt reported.
The debris from exploded turbine now poses a threat to the environment. The sharp fiberglass pieces injure grazing animals, says the Hanover School of Veterinary Medicine. “For cattle they can even perforate the stomach.”
Hazard to ground water
Another hazard comes from the hundreds of liters of transmission oil the turbines that seep into the groundwater. Moreover the huge reinforced concrete foundations require tremendous energy for their manufacture and they penetrate deep into the ground, which adversely effects soil and groundwater.
Growing list of disasters
The number of wind turbine disasters is mounting, reports Wetzel. Wind energy opposition group Vernunftkraft keeps a list, which has grown to be pages long. But the German Association of Wind Energy (Bundesverband Windenergie) downplays the incidents, calling them “isolated cases”.
Dealing with “ticking time bombs”
Yet the situation has in reality grown so serious that TÜV is now urgently calling for rigorous inspections and regulations in order to assure operational safety. TÜV expert Dieter Roas says that we dealing with “ticking time bombs.”
Wetzel writes that many turbines are now approaching their 20-25 year lifetimes and that extending their operating time should require technical approval.
The technical and structural integrity of the turbines in most cases is completely unknown.
TÜV expert Roas warns: “Here we are dealing with significant dangers”.
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By Kenneth Richard on 21. June 2018
Most Holocene reconstructions do not indicate that sea levels were more than about 5 meters above present between about 9,000 to 4,000 years ago.
But a new study utilizing well-preserved beach facies along the coasts of northern Denmark indicates that sea levels were as much as 12.5 meters higher than they are today during the Mid-Holocene.
These extremely high sea level elevation values may be less common, but other research has revealed that sea levels were as much as 8 meters higher than today near East Antarctica (Hodgson et al., 2016) during the Early Holocene. Just 2,000 years ago, sea levels were still 12 meters higher than today along the coasts of King George Island (Antarctica) (Chu et al., 2017). And research published in 2011 suggested sea levels near the Antarctic Peninsula were as much as 15.5 meters higher than today between 8,000 and 7,000 years ago (Watcham et al., 2011).
This new research using high-resolution sea level proxy evidence can be added to the list of 75 other recently published sea level papers indicating that global sea levels were on average about 1 to 5 meters higher than they are now (depending on location) just a few thousand years ago.
By P Gosselin on 20. June 2018
Sustainable alarm, unending hoax. Commentary at Germany’s ‘Die Welt’: Why has the climate-last-chance alarm been blaring 30 years long now? And why has the planet today “suddenly” just been given yet another 20 years by experts?
Remember how in 2007 Al Gore warned we had only 10 more years to act?
Well, those 10 years have long since expired, and that deadline came and went without the planet changing much. Embarrassed, global warming alarmists quietly pushed the doomsday back once again. And this time it was for real.
This game has been going on for years now.
Today, business journalist Daniel Wetzel here in a commentary at German national daily Die Welt finally is wondering why it’s been “5 to midnight for 30 years now”!
At Twitter here Wetzel remarked:
The end of the world has been postponed: the
#CO2-budget is now larger than what was given by the last #IPCC-report. Suddenly 20 years more time, reduction INDCs made in Paris are now enough. When it comes to climate change why has it been 5 to midnight for the last 30 years?”
Doomsday pushed back again…by 20 years!
All the climate alarms of the past 30 years have turned out to be false, and Wetzel notes above that the doomsday clock once again has been reset to give us yet another 20 years!
Over the past 30 years humanity has in fact prospered immensely, and we still get our winters, the globe is barely warmer, storms have not been getting worse, and a number of serious studies show no significant sea level rise acceleration.
But this time, the alarmists say, the next 20 years will really be our last chance.
One reader at Twitter commented that it’s “acid rain scare reloaded.”German power grid turns record costly, inefficient
If anything has changed because of “climate change”, it’s Germany’s electric power supply system. It’s gotten much more unstable and far more expensive because of all the volatile wind and solar power coming online.
In a recent commentary at the online Die Welt, Mr. Wetzel wrote that Germany’s power grid has become highly unstable and expensive for consumers, mostly due to all the volatile green energies that forced fed into the country’s grid.
According to Wetzel, German consumers were forced to pay a record amount of money “for stabilizing the power grid under the conditions of the Energiewende.”
1.4 billion euros just to keep grid stable
Citing an annual report from the Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Power Grid Agency), power consumers paid a total of 1.4 billion euros for emergency interventions into the power grid, and thus smashing the previous high of 1.1 billion euros set in 2015.
Wetzel also reports that green energy production systems also had to be shut down at times because there was no place to send the unneeded power. Wetzel writes:
With excessive wind power feed in the north, the current leads to a dangerous overloading of the too few power transmission lines.”
The ordered shutdowns cost consumers an additional 610 million euros, Wetzel reported. Solar and wind system operators get paid for the energy they don’t produce when ordered to shut down.
Grid interventions almost daily
Wetzel adds that interventions to keep the grid stable occurred almost daily, and that grid operators ordered the shutdown of parks to keep unwanted power from getting fed into the grid (wind park operators still got paid even for the power they never produced). According to Wetzel, grid overload situation occurred on 353 days last year.
German power rates among the highest in the world
Currently German consumers are being saddled with surcharges of 6.96 euro-cents per kilowatt hour just for the grid fees alone and another 6.69 euro-cents for kilowatt hour for the green energy feed-in, the Die Welt commentary writes.
Currently the average German consumer pays 29.44 euro-cents per kilowatt hour, of which about 16 euro-cents are made up of taxes, various fees, and surcharges, Wetzel reports.
In large part due to the Energiewende, Germany’s electricity prices for consumers have skyrocketed over the past decade.
By P Gosselin on 19. June 2018
It’s been close to three years since countries worldwide signed the Paris Agreement, which obligates nations pledge to commit themselves to intending (or something like that) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to “safeguard the planet’s future”.
The language of the Agreement is in fact non-binding, and so one wouldn’t be surprised to learn that some signatories might not be living up to the agreement’s spirit.“Relevant hoax”… all EU states “off-target”
So now it’s crystal clear: Europe was never really serious about implementing the Paris Agreement from the very start. It was nothing more than a New Year’s resolution which no one ever intended to stick to.
Little wonder ex-NASA GISS director James Hansen just told the Guardian: “…the relevant hoax today is perpetrated by those leaders claiming to be addressing the problem.”
Hansen is right.CAN Europe: dismal results
The aim of the CAN Europe report was to examine “which EU Member States are willing to increase their climate action and tackle the gap between the goals of the Paris Agreement and current greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts in the EU.”
The final results? According to the CAN Europe:
23 of 28 countries rated “poor” or “very poor”
The ranking shows that all EU countries are off target: they are failing to increase their climate action in line with the Paris Agreement goal. No single EU country is performing sufficiently in both ambition and progress in reducing carbon emissions.”
The chart on page 5 of the CAN Europe report shows us that a whopping 23 of 28 European countries are in fact performing poorly or even very poorly.
Source: CAN Europe.
The nongovernmental organization assessed the European countries according to a variety of factors, especially pro capita emissions and progress on expanding renewable energies. For example leader Sweden met 77% of the CAN measures, while Poland met only 16%.
Overall, poor countries performed far worse. This could in part indicate that green energies are more a trend for the rich and snobby countries.Germany embarrassed
Moreover, just days ago, Germany was forced to admit that it would fail to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets by a broader margin than first believed — “an embarrassing admission for a government that wants to lead the charge on limiting climate change.”9 years without reduction
Even more embarrassing: Germany in reality has not reduced its emissions in 9 years and there are no signs this trend will change any time soon!
In fact since 2007 the USA alone has reduced its CO2 emissions by approximately 700 million metric tons annually, which is in the neighborhood of Germany’s total annual output!